All posts by tedglick

Why Hitler Fan Trump Will Lose, If. . .

Future Hope, ,

Today’s the day for fascist Trump’s big rally in Madison Square Garden. Unfortunately for him and the MAGA’s, former Trump allies John Kelly and Mark Milley inconveniently expressed this month that from working with him while he was President they consider him to be a fascist, Milley saying “fascist to the core.” Media comparisons are already being made of today’s rally to the pro-Nazi rally in Madison Square Garden in 1939.

This is one of the reasons Trump will lose, if. . .

Another reason is the recent, rampant, obnoxious and overt sexism expressed over and over again by Trump at his rallies—remember Arnold Palmer’s private parts public musing?—and by acolytes like Tucker Carlson, likening Trump to the Big Daddy who comes home to beat the teenage daughter, with no remorse, for her transgressions. This will motivate some men, mainly white and of all ages, to vote for the misogynist fascist, but without question it will motivate at least as many, certainly more, women and anti-sexist men to be sure to vote the right way.

But perhaps the biggest reason why Trump will lose, “if. . .,” is the apparently much stronger get-out-the-vote and convince-persuadables effort being mounted in all of the battleground states by the Harris/Walz campaign and more independent allies, like Seed the Vote. There have been a number of reports over the last week or so about how the Trump/MAGA ground game, outsourced to Elon Musk, is faltering. One report estimated that 25% of the reports by Trump canvassers to their MAGA bosses were untruthful, that instead of knocking on doors and making efforts to actually talk to people, these paid canvassers were just leaving literature at the doors without that effort.

The ground game is important because, according to recent polling reported by CNN, there are still about 10% of “likely voters” who have either not decided who they’re voting for or have said they could potentially change their Presidential vote.

There is also the fact of Palestinian, Muslim and Arab-American community leaders in battleground state Arizona coming out publicly in support of people voting for Harris—“holding their nose” in doing so because of the Biden Administration’s unwillingness to cut off military aid to the Netanyahu government. Here’s how they put it: “Some of us have lost many family members in Gaza and Lebanon. We respect those who feel they simply can’t vote for a member of the administration that sent the bombs that may have killed their loved ones. As we consider the full situation carefully, however, we conclude that voting for Kamala Harris is the best option for the Palestinian cause and all of our communities.”

Combined, these are all solid reasons why Harris/Walz have a good chance of winning. So what’s up with the “if. . .”?

There are probably hundreds of thousands of us, maybe millions, around the country who, for the last many weeks or months, have been sending post cards, making calls and knocking on doors. There are more people joining in on the phone calling and door knocking now, in the home stretch. That work must continue and be strengthened. Those of us already doing so must step up how much we do in the next 10 days. For myself, I’m writing from Allentown, Pa., where this 75 year old white guy will be door knocking for at least eight straight days

Others who haven’t been involved in this work can still do so. Everyone can get on the phone and call everyone you know to be sure they’ve voted, or plan to do so, or to do our best to convince friends and relatives who are thinking of or planning to vote for Trump not to do so. Frankly, the situation we are in is worth strained relationships or even a loss of friendships.

If all of this happens, I think we can win. We can defeat the MAGA’s. We can get Trump’s various legal prosecutions back on track. We can move on to the next stage over the coming four years of a strengthened and better connected progressive movement advancing and winning on a range of issues.

These are realistic goals if, if, if we don’t let up. Si, se puede!!

Ted Glick has been a progressive activist and organizer since 1968. He is the author of the recently published books, Burglar for Peace and 21st Century Revolution. More info can be found at https://tedglick.com.

Coalition Building in MAGA Times

Future Hope, ,

Over the years since I became a progressive activist and organizer in 1968 I’ve been part of an awful lot of coalitions on an awful lot of issues: the Vietnam war, impeaching Nixon, Puerto Rican independence, tenants’ rights, the Rainbow Coalition, independent politics, fighting new fossil fuel infrastructure, supporting solar energy, racial justice, Palestinian freedom and more. I’ve done this coalition work because it is a fundamental fact of successful organizing that in order to win victories, or stave off big defeats, people and groups who ordinarily don’t interact have to do so.

Victories aren’t won by small groups of people with a narrow social base. They’re won by lots of people joining together and using whatever tactics make sense to achieve a common objective.

Over the last three months a very surprising coalition has come together united behind the Presidential candidacy of Kamala Harris—“from Bernie and AOC to Liz and Dick Cheney.” Who would have thought such a coalition could ever happen?

Very broad coalitions happen because there is a major threat to lots of people. The impacts of the threat may be different, with some more negatively impacted than others, but all can see that they will be impacted.

Trump, a “fascist to the core” according to Trump’s former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is such a major threat that this very strange, right-to-left, short-term coalition has come together behind the Democratic Party ticket of Harris and Walz.

Some leftists who are outraged, for good reason, by the Biden administration’s refusal to cut off military aid to Israel as it continues its genocidal war on Gaza have decided that, as a result, they can’t support Harris/Walz. They are willing to overlook Trump’s fascism and the certainty that a Trump Presidency will be even worse for the cause of Palestinian freedom.

As someone who has been demonstrating every week in northern New Jersey in support of a ceasefire, I fully understand why people have these feelings.

The anger and anguish I’ve felt since October 7th has been similar to the way I felt as a young person about the US government’s war in Vietnam in support of successive repressive regimes in what was then South Vietnam. Those feelings led me to turn in my draft card, burn an induction notice I received in response, and then take part in five Catholic Left actions nonviolently destroying Selective Service draft files and disabling bomb casings intended for use in Indochina. I ended up spending 11 months in prison in 1970-1971 for these actions.

While in prison I had time to read and reflect on what I had done and what was needed if the war was to be ended and US society fundamentally transformed away from war and racism to a truly peaceful and just society. Studying history, I came to realize that though the actions I had undertaken were good ones, appropriate because of the urgency, there was also a need for a broadly-based, massive movement demonstrating in the streets and taking action in other ways.

When I came out, this led to my eventual involvement in one of the major national coalitions working for an end to the war, the People’s Coalition for Peace and Justice. Ever since, whatever issue I have worked on, I was always willing to join together in coalition to increase the chances of winning.

My belief in the urgent importance of defeating fascist Trump has led me to do something I’ve never done before—work for Democratic Party candidates, from the Pennsylvania State House to the Presidency, within an official Democratic Party organizational structure. This Saturday and for a week or more after I’m going to be doing so in the Allentown, Pa. area, knocking on many hundreds of doors to help get out the Harris/Walz vote and hopefully persuade some undecideds to do the same.

It really is an all-hands-on-deck moment to preserve US democracy, a flawed democracy to be sure but one which up to now has made it possible for mass movements for progressive social change to win victories. Given the political strength of the MAGA forces and the existential danger they represent, I have no doubt that I and many of us around the country doing similar work are doing the right thing. The fascist threat, Trump, must be defeated on November 5th.

Ted Glick has been a progressive activist and organizer since 1968. He is the author of the recently published books, Burglar for Peace and 21st Century Revolution. More info can be found at https://tedglick.com.

It’s Not Just the Fascism

Future Hope, , , ,

This column is particularly for those people who live in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada who are thinking of or planning to vote for a third party candidate like Jill Stein or Cornell West.

In general, I get it on why some people, even in battleground states, are thinking that come election day, or before it, they intend to vote for someone other than Harris or Trump. These are people who believe that both parties are the problem.

For almost 20 years of my life, from the mid-90s to the mid-2010s, I always voted for the Green Party candidate for President. It was the party whose positions on issues were closest to my views, and I felt that I should vote that way accordingly.

Today, in 2024, there’s another reason why some people with progressive ideas are planning to vote for Jill Stein or Cornell West: the Biden Administration’s continuing military support for Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza. However, in my view, a good argument against this is the fact that Donald Trump will be even worse for the Palestinian people than Kamala Harris. Trump and the MAGA’s are united in their support for war criminal Netanyahu.

This is not true for Kamala Harris, and it’s not even true for Biden. Both have been increasingly open in their calls for an end to the war and, particularly for Harris, an addressing of the underlying issue of Israel’s illegal, brutal and long-standing occupation of land that is legally Palestine’s. Under a Harris Presidency there are reasons to believe that the mass movement in the United States in support of Palestinian freedom, aligned with the vast majority of the world, can force changes to US policy.

Another argument against voting in the battleground states for anyone other than Harris is the threat of fascism in the US. When Trump’s former US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley says of him that he is “fascist to the core,” those are words to take seriously.

But as I drove back yesterday from door to door canvassing for Harris/Walz in the Allentown, Pa. area I thought of another very good reason why a vote for them in battleground states is so strategic.

If Trump wins, the extremely broad—strange, actually—united front against him, from Bernie and AOC on one side to Liz and Dick Cheney on the other, will have no choice but to stay together to fight his administration on one issue after the other as the MAGA’s try to carry out their Project 2025 backwards-looking agenda.

If Trump loses, on the other hand, and a Harris/Walz administration moves forward as best they can with their agenda, the progressive Left can come together in support of the much stronger policies needed to address the structural injustice and the existential threat all life forms face worldwide because of our fossil fuel industry/corporate-dominated political and economic system. We can get better organized to advance strong action on the climate crisis via a Green New Deal, for improved Medicare for All, for a world-changing shift in US foreign policy so that money now used for military dominance around the world can be used for something like a full-fledged campaign to end poverty, and so much more.

It will be almost impossible to advance these and other righteous causes if we’re constantly on the defensive dealing with mass deportation round-ups, the use of the courts to indict and prosecute who knows how many of us, the rise of poverty, racism and rampant hetero- and transphobia, and more.

To put it another way, if Trump is defeated and Harris/Walz take office January 20, the conditions are much, much better for the advancement of an independent, progressive, program-based mass movement of many millions.

Battleground state leftists: all the polls are showing, at best, an extremely close race in the state where you live. It is possible that just a few thousand votes one way or the other could be decisive in who wins the Presidency. Please consider seriously.

Ted Glick has been a progressive activist and organizer since 1968. He is the author of the recently published books, Burglar for Peace and 21st Century Revolution. More info can be found at https://tedglick.com.

Indigenous Peoples Day, Some History

Future Hope, , , ,

I was very surprised a few days ago to see the local bank where I have an account displaying a sign outside the front door which referred to what they called, “Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples Day.” Although I wish the first two words had not been there, it is still a positive thing that they went public in this compromise kind of way.

There’s something personal to me about this day. I’m not Indigenous, am very much of European ancestry, but in 1992 at the time of the 500th anniversary, official celebrations in the US of Columbus’ arrival in the western hemisphere, I took part in a 42 day, water-only Fast for Justice and Peace in the Americas. It was initiated by Brian Willson, Scott Rutherford and Diane Fogliatti, and it went from September 1 to October 12.

The overall message of this action and the much broader movement out of which it emerged was that it was long past time to turn away from all that Christopher Columbus represents—racism, slavery, militarism, imperialism and ecological destruction—and commit ourselves to working for a next 500 years very different than the one experienced between 1492 and 1992. One specific demand was for Columbus Day to be replaced by Indigenous Peoples Day.

There was an Indigenous-led movement that had been taking action over many months in 1991-92 in support of this essential new direction for the USA and other countries in the Americas. The fast was inspired by that movement.

20 years before I had taken part in two long fasts/hunger strikes, one in 1971 for 33 days while in prison for draft resistance and another in 1972, a 40 day, water-only fast to end the war in Indochina.

When I heard about this initiative by Brian, Scott and Diane about a month before it was to begin, it struck a chord in me, and my life circumstances were such that I could join it. Then, toward the end of the fast, Diane Fogliatti came up with an idea for how to continue to build this movement: do an organized fast for 12 days, from October 1 to October 12, each year going forward. I ended up taking part in this, helping to lead a People’s Fast for Justice loose network which did so from 1993 to 2001. Our two demands were for Columbus Day to be renamed Indigenous Peoples Day and for political prisoner Leonard Peltier to be freed.

Doing some research for this column, I have learned that since 1992 there have been a growing number of localities and states which have officially recognized in some way the second Monday of October as Indigenous Peoples Day, including the states of Alaska, California, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Minnesota, Michigan, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Virginia and Wisconsin. What a surprise!

And responding to this upsurge, in 2021 President Joe Biden signed a proclamation in support of Indigenous Peoples Day.

There’s an awful lot of reasons to be anxious or depressed right now, but it is a very positive thing, something for which to be thankful, that Indigenous peoples throughout the Americas and elsewhere in the world continue to survive. Even more, they continue to give leadership in the existential battle to prevent cascading ecological and societal devastation and for a very different future in the years to come. La lucha continua!

Ted Glick has been a progressive activist and organizer since 1968. He is the author of the recently published books, Burglar for Peace and 21st Century Revolution. More info can be found at https://tedglick.com.

Why is Trump So Desperate!

Future Hope, , , ,

A few days ago a Marist Poll came out which reported an important finding as far as the Presidential race. It said:

“80% of registered voters nationally, including 86% of likely voters, say they know the candidate they plan to support and will not change their mind. 15% of registered voters have a good idea of the candidate for whom they plan to vote but could change their mind. Five percent have not made up their mind. Harris’ supporters (85%) are slightly more likely than Trump’s supporters (79%) to say they have made up their mind and will not change it prior to voting.”

So one month before the election, between 14-20% of registered voters have not made a final decision about who they will vote for.

This is a critical statistic for those of us who have already been involved, or who will be doing so in this critical last month of the campaign, in outreach efforts to communicate with voters. To me it says: Keep it up, step it up, or get more involved. This election is in no way baked in, and it is possible that Harris could win pretty decisively.

One reason why this statistic jumped out at me is because it fits with what I’ve been experiencing as I’ve been doing phone calling and door knocking over the last month and a half. Every Saturday that I could since mid-August I’ve gone to the Allentown area in Pennsylvania and done door knocking for Harris and down ballot Democrats. I’ve consciously done so in an explicitly up-for-grabs, purple-ish area, which has meant that though many of those I’ve talked with are Harris/Walz supporters, a sizeable percentage have been either Republicans or independents.

What are the main things I’ve experienced and learned from this work?

-One would be what the Marist survey says about the number of voters still “gettable” by those of us who understand the existential threat a Trump Presidency represents. As an example, on one of the Saturdays that I knocked on doors I spoke to four people who told me they were Republicans. When I asked them who they were supporting for President, one said Trump, and three said they didn’t know, they were conflicted. This example, similar to what I’ve experienced other days, is why the 14-20% number reported by Marist as not firm in their Presidential choice seems just about right.

-I’ve also been encouraged by the way my interactions have gone with the 125 or so people who I’ve spoken to in person doing this work, those at home and willing to open their door to a stranger. I’ve certainly had people make it clear that they’ve made up their mind and don’t want to talk to me, and there was one person who spoke to me pretty aggressively about his pro-Trump feelings, but that’s about it so far. As I expected going into this work, based on past experience, the fact that I was a live human being there in person, volunteering for something I believed in, being polite and willing to listen, face to face, counted for something.

Trump, Vance and the MAGA Republican campaign leadership are getting desperate as the fateful election day nears, so desperate that on Saturday, in Butler, Pa., Trump, Vance, Eric Trump and Lara Trump all repeated the lie that the attempted killing of Trump three months ago was a Democratic plot. They hope that these desperate tactics will motivate their base and ramp them up for the next month. Maybe that will happen, but it will also have an impact upon that 14-20% who haven’t yet firmly made up their mind.

To the extent that they experience their contact with Harris/Walz supporters as a very different, much more positive and hopeful experience, to that extent will the odds increase that Harris’s narrow lead in national polls will go up and election day turn out to be a very good day for the majority of this country which supports democracy and human decency. Si, se puede!

 Ted Glick has been a progressive activist and organizer since 1968. He is the author of the recently published books, Burglar for Peace and 21st Century Revolution. More info can be found at https://tedglick.com.

Monarchs, a Dragonfly and Defending Life on Earth

Future Hope, , ,

About a month ago I was watering plants in our family garden when a dragonfly landed on a plant just a few feet away from me. I watched it for a bit, expecting it to fly away, but when it didn’t I began talking to it in a quiet voice. As it continued to sit there, I got the idea of offering my finger for it to walk onto, but when I made the offer there was no response, though it didn’t fly away.

My next step was to pick up a small stick and offer that to this tiny creature of the universe which seemed to have some interest in me. When it immediately stepped onto that stick I slowly raised it so that we were literally face to face, about a foot apart. I was struck by the beautiful red and green colors on its triangular face. I continued talking in a low voice for a minute or so, then slowly moved the stick back to where the dragonfly had been sitting. It stepped off and stayed there until, a couple minutes later, I left.

I’ve never had an experience like this before with an insect. Every time I think about it I am amazed that it happened. But my and my wife’s work over the last 10 or so years in support of the monarch butterfly population definitely prepared me for this. Over all those years, every summer, we do what we can to help this amazing insect species survive.

How do we do this? We do so by finding monarch eggs–and rarely a caterpillar–on the underside of milkweed leaves, of which there are many on our property. We bring them inside and, over the course of a month, raise them as they keep eating milkweed leaves that we provide them. After 10 or so days they become a beautiful yellow, black and white caterpillar, then a chrysalis and finally a butterfly, at which point we release them.

While protecting them from their natural predators, we raise them as similarly as we can to the conditions they would experience if outside. We don’t turn on the lights when it gets dark in the room where we keep them. We don’t air condition the room. We place them close to a window where they can experience natural light. And they are always released the next day once they emerge as a beautiful butterfly from their chrysalis.

We were inspired to do this by a nearby friend, Trina Paulus, who explained to us that about 90% of all monarch eggs are eaten by other insects or birds, but if brought inside and raised correctly about 90% of those eggs will become butterflies. Given the very real risk of extinction of this species, it seemed, and continues to seem, like the right thing to do.

This was not a good summer for the monarchs in our small little place in the world. Despite a lot of searching for eggs not just on our property but in areas nearby where there are milkweed plants, we ended up raising and releasing just 35 butterflies. Last year the number was 52; the year before 83; the year before 151. The most we’ve ever raised, in 2019, was 160.

We wish our situation was an aberration, but it really isn’t. An article published two weeks ago on Discover + Share, a Missouri Botanical Garden blog, reported that, “If you look at the trends in the data over the last 30 years it is pretty alarming,” says [Tad] Yankoski. “For the first 10 years the size of the overwintering monarch population [in Mexico] was measured, it averaged 21 acres. For the last 10 years the size is a bit under 7 acres, a decline of two thirds, which is cause for alarm.” The reasons include climate disruption, habitat loss and pesticide abuse.

There’s a lot to be depressed about these days in addition to this reality for the monarch population. There’s Israel’s blatantly regressive, destructive and war-loving government and the continuing, US military support of it. There’s the climate emergency and ecological devastation throughout the world, Hurricane Helene being the latest example for us in the US. There is the denial in many states of women’s fundamental right to make decisions for themselves about their bodies. And, of course, there is the reality of mass, though not majority, support of Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans.

It is significant that the MAGA forces do not have majority support on a national level, though they’re close. It provides grounds for hope that Trump and others running for office will be defeated on November 5th. That result, the election of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, will in no way mean we can all just sit back, take it easy and let their administration do what they decide to do. Indeed, given the political strength of the MAGA forces, it is clear that the broad progressive movement must hit the streets, be visible, be more united, do more outreach into the MAGA constituencies, especially white working-class men, and step up our game as we push for solutions at the scale of the problems.

Don’t mourn, organize! If ever these words were appropriate, it’s right now, this month, this year, this decade. We must draw strength from one another and from the natural world and keep at it. If we do, history shows, without question, that there is hope we really can change the world.

 Ted Glick has been a progressive activist and organizer since 1968. He is the author of the recently published books, Burglar for Peace and 21st Century Revolution. More info can be found at https://tedglick.com.

National Self-Determination in the 2020’s

Future Hope, , , ,

“Imagine there’s no countries
It isn’t hard to do.
Nothing to kill or die for
And no religion too.
Imagine all the people
Living life in peace.
You may say I’m a dreamer
But I’m not the only one.
I hope some day you’ll join us
And the world will live as one.”

These visionary words of John Lennon in the song, Imagine, are an idea, a kind-of prayer, I fully support. And the fact that this is such a popular song worldwide—it was once played at the closing ceremony of the world Olympics—is a sliver of hope that, despite all of the reasons to doubt it, some day, long after I’m gone, humankind will advance to a point where this is our reality.

In the here and now, however, the issue of the right of nations to determine their own leadership and form of government, for democracy and justice within them, is what’s on our plate, what is before the world as a whole to try to resolve.

How strong is the support among US progressives and leftists today for the right of national self-determination? From what I can see, it’s a definitely mixed reality.

Some US leftist groups have refused to condemn Russia’s 2021 military invasion of Ukraine, an invasion with the clear intention of removing the democratically elected Ukrainian government. For them, the concept of national self-determination is apparently to be applied selectively. If the US government is violating that principle, as it has often done historically and continues to do today in many parts of the Global South, then they will be critical. But if its another government, especially Russia, doing the violating, it is sometimes a different story.

In Palestine/Israel most leftists support the right of Palestinians to resist Israel’s brutal aggression and continuing occupation of their historic territory and their right to a state of their own on some or all of historic Palestine. That support is higher now that it has probably ever been in the US because of Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza. Even Kamala Harris, no leftist, has come out publicly and repeatedly in support of Palestinian self-determination and a state alongside the state of Israel.

There are no easy solutions to these two, major, raging hot wars, but it seems to me that an ultimate resolution of both of them has to put the self-determination issue at the center of those solutions.

What would that mean concretely? For Ukraine it would mean that a key element of any diplomatic resolution, an end to the war, would be the holding of democratic and transparent elections under the auspices of the United Nations in Crimea and those parts of eastern Ukraine occupied by Russian troops. Those elections would be a form of self-determination in what are clearly the most contested areas between Russia and Ukraine. The issue to be determined by those elections is whether those regions continue to be Ukrainian or become part of Russia.

In Palestine it must mean a number of things: an end to Israel’s war, a ceasefire, the release of Hamas held hostages and Israeli held political prisoners, massive humanitarian assistance to Gaza and the withdrawal of the Israeli military from Gaza and the West Bank. It must also mean provisions for United Nations sponsored, Gaza/West Bank/East Jerusalem elections for a new Palestinian government. Only Palestinian self-determination free of Israeli or any other non-Palestinian influence can make it possible for this long-suffering people and this dangerous situation to begin to change course.

But what about the idea of one bi-national state in which Israelis and Palestinians, Muslims, Jews and Christians live together under some form of interconnected government? Here is how the late Edward Said described his vision for this state in 1999: “After 50 years of Israeli history, classic Zionism has provided no solution to the Palestinian presence. I therefore see no other way than to begin now to speak about sharing the land that has thrust us together, sharing it in a truly democratic way with equal rights for all citizens.” (1)

Others since have come up with various, much more specific proposals for how such a bi-national state might work, including a government more of a federation than a fully unified polity.

It is very hard to see this happening anytime soon, given the widespread fear, anger and bitterness on both sides of the Israel/Palestinian divide. But as a vision for the future, sometime in the future, hopefully not many decades into the future, it is very much consistent with John Lennon’s vision. Indeed, Lennon envisioned, as have many prophets and spiritual leaders going back millennia, including Jesus of Nazareth, something even more radical, more transformative:

“Imagine no possessions
I wonder if you can.
No need for greed or hunger
A brotherhood of man.
Imagine all the people
Sharing all the world.”

You can say that he was a dreamer, but he wasn’t the only one when he wrote this song, and he was right that all of us who share this vision, who struggle to hold onto it at this difficult time, must find the ways to join together to build toward such a world. Our children, our grandchildren, the seven generations coming after us, are dependent on us doing so.

  • Edward Said, “Truth and Reconciliation,” Al-Ahram Weekly, January 14, 1999


Ted Glick has been a progressive activist and organizer since 1968. He is the author of the recently published books, Burglar for Peace and 21st Century Revolution. More info can be found at https://tedglick.com.

Presidential Polling Anyone?

Future Hope, , , , ,

I was surprised recently when a good friend and sister progressive activist commented in the course of a discussion about the US Presidential campaign that polls were essentially useless. I was surprised by her statement and explained to her why I disagreed.

I have found that, historically, polling done by reputable, non-partisan companies is a good way to get the general lay of the land at particular moments in time for a competitive election race. However, I never go by any one poll, even one with a good reputation. It is important to look at a mix of them to get a pretty reliable understanding of the state of play.

Here’s a current example. Five days ago a NY Times/Sienna poll reported that the race between Harris and Trump was tied at 47-47. Two days ago a CBS poll had Harris ahead, 52-48, and an NBC poll had her ahead 49-44.

This reminded me of another NY Times poll which came out the day after Biden dropped out of the race July 21. That one had Trump ahead 49-43. Other polls had Biden down but more like by 3 or so points.

So it may be that the NY Times polls are somewhat of an outlier, too negative, for whatever reason.

And that is why it is necessary to look at more than one poll to get the most accurate view of the state of play.

Here’s where things are right now, using that methodology: averaging five reputable polls over the last week, done by CBS, NBC, NY Times, Economist and Forbes, Harris is ahead by about 3 ½ percentage points, 50-46 ½.

Of course, the winner of the national popular vote isn’t who becomes President. If we had that system Trump would never have been President. But he won in 2016 because of the anachronistic Electoral College. It is whoever wins the most of those votes who becomes the winner. That is why, this year, it’s the results in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada that will determine who wins. How do the national polls relate to that?

My understanding is that Harris would need to win the national popular vote by at least 2% to have a chance at winning enough of the battleground states to then win the election. So a 3 ½% margin with six weeks out is good, but not good enough. There’s clearly a need for all of us who get it on the great danger Trump represents to pitch in and do all we can until November 5.

What about the third party candidates?

There have been five polls over the last week and a half that have included Kennedy (still on some ballots despite his [outrageous] support of Trump), Stein, Oliver (Libertarian) and West. Averaging those polls, Kennedy is close to zero, Stein is at 1.2%, Oliver is at ½% and West is at 1.4%.

How is all of this helpful to progressive voters and activists?

One way it’s helpful is that, instead of being demobilized by understandable worry, it can give us hope of defeating Trump, which should then translate into postcard writing, phone calling and door knocking to encourage undecided voters to vote the right way and to increase those numbers. This is important because the race is still much closer than it should be. It is also important because the larger the vote for Harris, the more votes there will be down ballot for US Senate, the House and state and local elections. And progressive candidates almost always benefit from a large voter turnout.

In addition, the bigger the percentage for Harris, the more that will deflate Trump supporters and undercut MAGA’s efforts to disrupt the process leading toward a Harris inauguration on January 20.

Finally, for those whose anger at what US-supported Israel is doing in Gaza, the West Bank and now Lebanon make it hard to vote for Harris, a recent analysis by long-time labor and Black activist Bill Fletcher, Jr. really should be read and considered.

Ted Glick has been a progressive activist, organizer and writer since 1968. He is the author of the recently published books, Burglar for Peace and 21st Century Revolution. More info can be found at https://tedglick.com

Harris or Trump: No Difference for Palestinians?

Future Hope, , , ,

Does it make any difference to the Palestinian people whether it is Harris or Trump who wins? I think it does, big time.

I get it on why many Palestinians, Arab Americans and strong progressives in the United States are so anguished and angry at the refusal of the Biden Administration to stop sending weapons of war to Israel, prolonging unnecessarily the agonizing suffering in Gaza. I feel the same way and express it in action every week at a local Free Palestine demonstration. But I don’t agree that, therefore, the right thing to do on November 5th, or before via early voting, is to vote for Jill Stein or Cornell West as a protest vote.

What are the likely consequences for Palestinians of Donald Trump winning?

Trump is Netanyahu’s, guy, and the MAGA Republicans are his US party. It was the Republican controlled House leadership which invited this war criminal to speak to Congress in late July. There are no Republican Congresspeople who have come out in support of a ceasefire. It was during Trump’s Presidency that the US Embassy was moved to Jerusalem. In a Reuters article on August 15th Trump is quoted as saying, “From the start, Harris has worked to tie Israel’s hand behind its back, demanding an immediate ceasefire, always demanding ceasefire,” Trump said, adding it “would only give Hamas time to regroup and launch a new October 7 style attack.”

A Trump victory will strengthen the hand of Netanyahu and his now-unpopular government, give a green light to settler and IDF violence in the West Bank and advance their explicitly racist and colonialist agenda of extending the state of Israel “from the river to the sea,” as they say.

If Harris wins, there is a basis to continue to pressure her and Democrats to make real their explicit verbal support for a ceasefire and an end to the war on Gaza by cutting off military aid, if the on-going pressure from below doesn’t achieve a ceasefire before election day. A Harris victory would allow the Free Palestine movement to build upon the massive progressive and liberal energy unleashed by her campaign and enlist additional numbers behind the demands for not just a ceasefire, the release of Israel hostages and Palestinian prisoners and massive humanitarian aid to Gaza, but also for a serious commitment to moving the ball forward as far as Palestinian self-determination. Harris has spoken a number of times in support of “Palestinian self-determination.”

In my view, bringing that self-determination demand forward, and giving it real content, would mean that there must be a Palestine-wide election to choose government leaders, not the imposition of the corrupt and unpopular Palestine Authority or any other scheme where Palestinians are unable to vote for who they want. And it seems to me that relatively soon, there should be a Palestine-wide referendum on what kind of new arrangement they support, whether a two-state solution, and what that would mean, how that would be done in a way which empowers them, or something else.

Only a Harris administration has the potential, if strongly pushed, to do all these things. Voting in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada or Arizona for anyone other than her will not advance and could even jeopardize the Palestinian cause, in my view.

Ted Glick has been a progressive activist, organizer and writer since 1968. He is the author of the recently published books, Burglar for Peace and 21st Century Revolution. More info can be found at https://tedglick.com

Trump Must Go, Progressives Must Unite

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Overall, it was both a relief and an energizer to see Kamala Harris put Donald Trump in his place last night in the big debate. We can only hope this was a turning point in the much-needed popular shift away from the MAGA fanatics, a takedown that is not just an energizer for those who believe in democracy but a downer for those who are either hard-core racists/sexists/fascists or who have been taken in up to now by all the lies, the hype, and the appeals to the worst in the human condition.

I will personally be doing a lot over the next 55 days to help get Trump defeated and help Democrats hold onto the Senate and take back the House. After this decisive Trump debate defeat, all of those things seem possible, though by no means a certainty. I will continue to go to Pennsylvania almost every Saturday between now and election day to do door knocking and talking to voters, as well as evening phone banking 2-3 times a week. I have adjusted my life so that I can do these things, which I can do because I am retired.

But as last night’s debate unfolded I found myself feeling not just elation over Harris’ clear-cut debate victory but also the necessity of progressives across a broad range of issues, constituencies and organizations taking steps to be better connected, to unite in some kind of a way, after November 5. That is needed because the debate made clear that Harris is not running as a progressive, even though some of her positions are definitely progressive. She is running as a representative of a broad, pro-democracy united force that includes lots of people and groups on the Left but also people like Dick Cheney. Dick Cheney!!!

Trump is so bad, so retrograde, so dangerous that this truly remarkable temporary alliance has come into being.

There were a number of things Harris said and didn’t say last night that were problematic if you are a progressive:

-While opposing Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza and supporting a “two-state solution” and “Palestinian self-determination,” her words, she said nothing about ending, or even pausing, US weapons shipments to Israel.

-On climate she was decidedly weak. She was uncritical of fracking; she could have referenced that there are lots of landowners and community people who have been poisoned by the expansion of the fracked gas industry, but she didn’t. She never took the initiative to talk about the need for a rapid shift off of fossil fuels to renewables, battery storage, electric cars, buses and trains and electric heat pumps for heating and cooling. At one point she did say, “I am proud that as vice president over the last four years, we have invested a trillion dollars in a clean energy economy.” That was good, no question. But she added to that sentence this problematic phrase, this very problematic reality: “while we have also increased domestic gas production to historic levels.”

-Despite Trump’s repeated racist and wildly inaccurate statements about immigrants, she never called him out on that.

-There was no mention of the importance of unions for working-class people, very little about labor.

-She continued to say, as she has done repeatedly in her speeches, that is a good thing that, to paraphrase, we are spending close to $1 trillion a year dominating the world militarily. She put it this way: “I believe in what we can do together that is about sustaining America’s standing in the world and ensuring we have the respect that we so rightly deserve including respecting our military and ensuring we have the most lethal fighting force in the world.”

Is it necessary politically that Harris take these kinds of less-than-progressive positions in order to amass the votes needed to defeat Trump? Maybe. I’m sure there are those in her campaign leadership who believe this, and she clearly has bought into it.

That is why it is so necessary that after Trump and MAGA are hopefully defeated, hopefully decisively, on November 5th, progressives must find the ways to strengthen our connections and expand our support so that going into 2025 we are in a position to fight for truly progressive actions across the board. But for the next 55 days we must each do all we can for a defeat of the fascist threat. First things first.

Ted Glick has been a progressive activist, organizer and writer since 1968. He is the author of the recently published books, Burglar for Peace and 21st Century Revolution. More info can be found at https://tedglick.com